The Russian foreign exchange market enters March with a paradox: the external picture for the ruble has become more complicated, but the exchange rate is holding steady. The balance of payments statistics sets the tone for the discussion. By the end of 2025, the current account surplus decreased to $41.4 billion from $62.6 billion a year earlier. The compression of the external inflow of currency reduces the margin of safety of the exchange rate and increases the importance of internal sources of supply.
The factor that the market feels on a daily basis is related to the scale of currency sales. On some dates, the Bank of Russia conducted sales at the level of about 16.5 billion rubles. For the current depth of the market, such values become a noticeable stabilizer: they smooth out the dips in export revenue and maintain the balance of supply and demand at times when oil and foreign trade do not provide strong support.
The structural part of the picture looks calmer due to non-oil and gas exports and restrained domestic demand for foreign currency. Tight monetary policy increases the attractiveness of ruble-denominated instruments and reduces the pace of credit expansion. At the same time, the infrastructural risks of settlements in "toxic" currencies persist, so some companies postpone FX purchases, use alternative currencies, offset schemes and longer payment cycles. The result is a reduction in the current pressure from importers in the spot market.
The main point of tension on the horizon in the coming months is related to the budget rule. In early March, the Ministry of Finance announced a decision to temporarily suspend the purchase and sale of foreign currency and gold under the budget rule due to planned changes in the base oil price parameter. This is an important signal for the exchange rate: the market is starting to establish a different profile of the regular currency supply.
The discussion of the cut-off price trajectory adds additional intrigue. The public agenda includes a policy of gradually reducing the budget's dependence on oil and gas revenues, which implies a downward movement in the cut-off price. The lower the base price, the lower the volume of regular currency sales in the typical budget rule configuration, and the more sensitive the market is to fluctuations in export revenue.
The practical side is important for foreign economic activity now. The strong ruble window is supported by transaction flows and budget settings. In March, the role of scenario planning is growing: fixing the exchange rate for contracts, timing payments, revising the price currency, and limits on open positions. Market participants will look at the second half of 2026 through the prism of two variables: the volume of irregular sales and the trajectory of the key interest rate, which over time may revive demand for the currency from imports and consumers. In this configuration, risk management becomes a direct margin factor for importers, exporters, and logistics operators.
