The Russian currency, despite its recent strengthening, may weaken significantly during 2026 if current macroeconomic trends persist, analysts at the Euler investment company believe. According to their estimates, by the end of next year, the dollar exchange rate may reach about 96 rubles per dollar, which implies a serious change in the ruble's position on international markets.
The forecast is prepared in the review "Ruble. What exchange rate?", where experts analyze the key factors influencing the dynamics of the national currency. One of the reasons for the possible weakening is the reduction in daily sales of foreign currency in transactions outside the budget rule: it is expected that the volume of such sales will decrease from the current approximately88.9 billion to about ₽4.6 billion per day in early 2026, and then possibly further decrease in the second half of the year.
The decline in oil prices will also play a negative role. Analysts believe that the average annual price of Russian oil (a mixture of Urals and ESPO) used for calculating taxes may be in the range of $45-50 per barrel, which is lower than the levels of 2025 and puts pressure on foreign exchange earnings from energy exports.
According to experts, the weakening of the ruble will be gradual. In the first quarter of 2026, the average dollar exchange rate may be about 86.9 rubles, in the second — about 90.6 rubles, and in the third — about 94.3 rubles, with further growth by the end of the period. Similarly, the yuan's exchange rate may strengthen against the ruble against the background of structural changes in commodity markets.
Among other factors weighing on the ruble, analysts cite stagnation in export earnings, a moderate recovery in imports after a "pause" in purchases, as well as a possible reduction in the key interest rate or a reduction in currency interventions by the Bank of Russia.
Earlier, the ruble showed unusually strong dynamics: in 2025, it strengthened against the dollar by about 45%, which experts attribute to low demand for foreign currency within the country, tight monetary policy and restrictions on capital movements. However, such growth, according to some experts, does not reflect fundamental economic trends and may be vulnerable to changes in external conditions.
In addition to the Euler forecast, other analytical centers also express a cautious view of the ruble's prospects. For example, according to other estimates, the dollar exchange rate in 2026 may range from 85 to 90 rubles in the first half of the year, with higher levels possible under adverse conditions.
Thus, even despite the current success of the ruble in the ratings of currency dynamics, it is expected that next year it will be under pressure from both external factors and internal structural challenges. The strengthening of the dollar against the ruble may affect the cost of imports, the investment climate and the budget, which forces market participants and government agencies to prepare for the new currency reality.
