The Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China and the Tax Service have published a notification on the adjustment of the export VAT policy. Starting from April 1, 2026, export VAT refunds will be canceled for some product codes, and a transitional period will be introduced for the battery group with a reduction in the rate and subsequent complete cancellation. The date of application is the date of export indicated in the customs declaration.
In practice, this means that the Chinese exporter loses (in whole or in part) the usual "tax buffer", which was often included in the final price as a competitive tool. For the Russian importer, the effect will be visible not only in direct supplies from China, but also in purchases through traders and assembly chains from third countries: if components from the list are present in the cost, pressure on the price may cascade.
The key question is how quickly suppliers will pass the changes on to the buyer. As a rule, the market divides the cost increase between the exporter, the foreign distributor and the final importer, but the "soft scenario" is not always worth waiting for: in sensitive categories (energy, electronics, industrial equipment), margins are often limited, which means the transfer to the price is faster.
Industry participants are already warning about rising prices and the risk of a drawdown in demand. As Andrey Serebryakov, Deputy General Director for Customer Relations at Kanavara Logistics, noted, "the abolition of VAT refunds in China, given that the country is the dominant supplier of goods to the Russian Federation, will boost prices and affect demand for products from the list."
It is important that the innovations do not affect a "narrow" segment. In addition to the obvious photovoltaics and related items, batteries and batteries are a separate line: in 2026, the refund rate is reduced, and then completely canceled. This creates two market effects.
The first is "demand forwarding". Closer to April 1, 2026, a short—term surge in shipments is likely: exporters will try to maximize volumes under the old conditions, and importers will close the need ahead until the price has adjusted. The second is the subsequent supply pit in terms of codes and more nervous price dynamics: first a jump, then an adjustment, followed by a steady upward trend as the new tax reality takes hold.
What should Russian importers do now?:
- Check whether your HS codes and component codes are included in the lists (especially if you are importing nodes/modules rather than the final product).
- Rewire the contractual mathematics: price revision clauses, payment terms, delivery bases, and responsibility for tax changes on the exporter's side.
- Spread the risks over time: close part of the volume in advance, but without excessive storage (the battery group is sensitive to storage and certification nuances).
- Prepare alternatives: other countries of assembly, replacement of suppliers, localization of individual operations — not "instead of China", but as insurance against price and regulatory waves.
The result is simple: the cancellation/reduction of export VAT refunds is not a one—time news item, but a change in pricing rules across entire chains. Whoever is the first to recalculate codes, deadlines, and contractual formulas will go through the transition period more calmly — and with fewer margin losses.
