Asia's emerging economies are facing a new round of competitive pressure from China, which, according to American analysts, is rapidly redirecting export flows to regional markets. The New York Times calls what is happening the "second Chinese shock" — by analogy with the profound structural changes of the early 2000s, when China's accession to the World Trade Organization and large-scale reforms led to a "tsunami of cheap goods" that hit world markets.
Today, the situation repeats itself, but the geography is shifting: Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and other rapidly developing countries of Southeast Asia are taking the brunt. The publication notes that after reducing access to the American market, China is actively looking for alternative sales routes. This caused an increase in Chinese imports to the region and increased pressure on local industry, primarily the manufacturing sector.
Singapore-based economist Priyanka Kishore stresses that the consequences may be more serious than before. According to her, "there is certainly a risk that if Chinese exports continue to grow, we will see more and more protests." Experts note that discontent is already growing in Southeast Asian countries, especially among small producers who cannot withstand price competition.
The article emphasizes that the combination of economic pressure and growing anti-Chinese sentiment "creates an explosive situation." In some sectors, such as the manufacture of household appliances, textiles, and electronics, the share of Chinese goods has grown so sharply that local businesses are forced to cut jobs or move into the shadows.
Comparing the current processes with the "first Chinese shock," analysts recall that in the early 2000s, Western countries were able to adapt due to the rapid growth of the service sector and the large-scale transformation of the labor market. However, the economies of Southeast Asia, unlike developed countries, are much more dependent on industrial production. This increases the likelihood of social tension and protest outbursts.
Observers believe that if the current trend intensifies, the region may face serious challenges: rising unemployment, business closures and political destabilization. At the same time, China is actively strengthening trade ties with neighboring countries, which makes them dependent on imports, but at the same time vulnerable to increasing price competition.
The situation requires regional governments to strike a delicate balance: on the one hand, to maintain access to cheap goods that support consumer demand; on the other, to protect their own manufacturing industries and jobs. This will be a key challenge for many countries in 2026.
