The Ministry of Finance has put forward a compromise scenario for taxation of foreign goods that Russians order through marketplaces. The configuration under discussion assumes a phased increase in the VAT rate in 2027-2028 and a transition to full tax payment from 2029. This is an important signal for the market: the planning of import ranges, marketing and delivery can be linked to a clear scale, rather than a sudden change in rules in one year.
According to the presented parameters, the rate for cross-border e-commerce in 2027 may be 5%, in 2028 - 10%, in 2029 - 15%, and then the system should reach the full rate, which in 2026 appears as 22%. In parallel, the principle of VAT deduction is being discussed, regardless of whether the parcel is subject to customs duty. This is changing the economy of "small shipments", where previously the key guideline for the buyer was the duty-free threshold.
For logistics and foreign economic activity, this means an increasing role of correct data in the order: cost, description, product coding, country of origin, responsibility of the seller and the site for fiscal operations. The sooner marketplaces and delivery operators build a single data contour, the lower the percentage of delays at the "payment — release — delivery" interface. With the increasing tax burden, the cost of errors in documents is increasing, and delivery times are becoming a competitive factor for sites that deliver goods from Asia and the Middle East through hubs and consolidated lines.
The discussion is fueled by the position of offline retail, which seeks to equalize the conditions of competition. The Ministry of Industry and Trade is on the side of acceleration. The agency outlined the motive directly:
"This position has been sent to the Russian Ministry of Finance as part of the elaboration of the relevant draft law. The main purpose of this proposal is to equalize conditions between Russian and foreign sellers (manufacturers). Currently, VAT is not provided for such goods, including it is reimbursed when exported to a foreign country, while Russian manufacturers pay it in full."
For marketplaces and sellers on cross-border storefronts, retention of conversions becomes a key task. The VAT increase will be transformed into the final cost. In practice, this leads to a reassembly of the assortment matrix in favor of goods with higher margins and stable demand, as well as the development of local warehouses that allow shipments to be delivered in advance and distributed within the country in a fulfillment mode. The "price with taxes at the checkout" format will be important for buyers, where the fiscal part is shown transparently and deducted automatically.
If the Ministry of Finance's scenario is fixed in legislation, 2026 will be a period of preparation: integration of IT circuits, payment settings, unification of product cards and agreement of contracts between sites, sellers and logistics partners. For businesses in foreign economic activity, this is the moment when it is worthwhile to recalculate supply chains, assess the effect on the average receipt, and pre-strategize on delivery dates and warehouse model.
