Global logistics is facing serious challenges, and Russia is not staying away from global changes. At the TransRussia summit, expert Ksenia Klimko from the Trust Technologies Group presented an analytical look at how the transport sector is being transformed and which three pillars shape its future.: speed, digitalization, and infrastructure.
The main impact on the industry is caused by macroeconomic changes: trade flows are being redistributed, global cargo turnover is decreasing, and competition between carriers is intensifying. Previously, global trade showed stable growth of 6% annually, but now this figure has fallen to 2%. In Russia, against the backdrop of the turn of logistics towards Asia, the role of Chinese companies has increased, displacing domestic carriers in both the maritime and automotive sectors — Chinese car companies often offer 20% more favorable tariffs.
The financial situation of Russian transport companies is also deteriorating: the ratio of net debt to EBITDA has increased from 1.8 to 2.2 in just two years. At the same time, against the background of falling oil prices and the strengthening of the ruble, it is difficult for exporters to increase revenues, and freight rates have reached historic lows.
The transportation segments show multidirectional dynamics: trucking continues to grow due to e-commerce and trade with Asia, while maritime and rail logistics are stagnating, especially against the background of declining exports of coal and metals. The aviation sector is suffering from a shortage of cargo planes, and there is also a noticeable strengthening of China's position.
Against this background, the strategic vectors of global development are of particular importance. Leading countries such as China, India and the United States are investing in the development of multimodal transport infrastructure, digitalization of logistics processes, greening transport and increasing the speed of delivery. China stands out in particular: the "1-2-3" concept sets ambitious delivery time targets ranging from one to three days for different destinations. High-speed highways, logistics hubs, and digital demand forecasting platforms are actively developing to support these goals.
Russia is also taking steps in this direction — large international corridors are on the infrastructure agenda, artificial intelligence is penetrating logistics, and the idea of speeding up delivery is gaining popularity.
However, new challenges await the market in the near future. Carriers are already warning about tariff increases of up to 25% by the end of 2025 due to rising fuel prices, equipment shortages and changes in tax policy.
The future of logistics is already shaping up, and it requires bold decisions, flexibility, and a willingness to adapt to new conditions.
