JPMorgan investment bank has provided an updated forecast on the dynamics of bitcoin, indicating the possibility of further significant growth. Analysts at the institute believe that the cryptocurrency demonstrates trading patterns similar to those observed in the gold market, which creates conditions for large-scale growth over the coming months.
The key argument of the bank was the comparison of bitcoin with gold, adjusted for volatility. According to this model, the fair price of a cryptocurrency in the medium term may be about 170 thousand dollars. Analysts note that the current market structure indicates strong growth potential in the 6-12 months horizon, despite a temporary decrease in risk appetite and uncertainty surrounding individual corporate strategies in the industry.
In a document addressed to clients, JPMorgan experts emphasized that recent market fluctuations were related to expectations of interest rate changes in 2026 and the general caution of investors. An additional pressure factor was the discussion of a possible reduction of the bitcoin portfolio by a major player in the digital market, Strategy. However, the company's management stated that the sale of assets is possible only if their value significantly deviates from the estimated mNAV indicator.
According to analysts, Strategy's financial performance reduces the likelihood of forced sales, which reduces pressure on the market. In addition, JPMorgan draws attention to the upcoming revision of the MSCI index on January 15, which may affect companies with a high proportion of crypto assets in the capital structure. MSCI's solution has the potential to both improve and complicate bitcoin's market dynamics.
At the moment, the cryptocurrency is near the $89,700 mark. Nevertheless, the bank's experts remind that during previous periods of market uncertainty, investors often switched to digital assets as an alternative means of preserving capital. It is this similarity in the behavior of bitcoin and gold that plays a key role in JPMorgan's forecast.
Despite fears of possible pressure from regulators or corporate sales, analysts note that institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies continues to deepen. The growing maturity of the market infrastructure, limited bitcoin issuance, and increased interest from large investors shape the asset's long-term sustainability.
Thus, JPMorgan's forecast reflects faith in bitcoin's ability to recover previous highs and reach new price levels. However, further dynamics will depend on macroeconomic factors, decisions of financial indexes, as well as the behavior of large holders of digital assets.
