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The Central Bank lifted restrictions on transfers abroad: how will this change the foreign exchange market

Currency
1,106 09.12
The Central Bank lifted restrictions on transfers abroad: how will this change the foreign exchange market
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The Bank of Russia unexpectedly announced the lifting of currency restrictions on money transfers abroad for citizens of Russia and friendly countries. The decision comes into force on December 8 and is valid until June 2026. The regulator explains the move by stabilizing the foreign exchange market and strengthening the ruble, but experts are arguing whether this will weaken the exchange rate and support exporters.

The Bank of Russia announced the early lifting of the remaining currency restrictions on cross-border transfers for citizens of Russia and friendly countries, starting on December 8. The decision was unexpected, as the regulator had previously planned to maintain the current limits until the end of March 2026. However, the sharp strengthening of the ruble and the stabilization of the situation in the foreign exchange market allowed the regulator to reconsider its approach and temporarily expand the freedom of capital movement.

Now, resident individuals and citizens of friendly states will be able to freely transfer funds abroad without previously established restrictions. The decision is valid for six months — until June 7, 2026. According to the regulator, the current structure of supply and demand for the currency creates conditions under which allowing free withdrawal of capital does not pose a threat to financial stability.

At the same time, restrictions remain in place for citizens of unfriendly states, as well as for their companies, except in cases where foreign investors conduct transactions from In-type accounts. For non-residents working in Russia, the right remains to send abroad only the wages earned in the country.

The weakening of control was a logical continuation of the strengthening of the ruble: for the first time in two and a half years, the dollar fell below 77 rubles, and the euro fell below 90 rubles. The discussion on the market has intensified that an excessively strong national currency can put pressure on budget revenues and exporters. The high ruble exchange rate reduces their ruble revenue, especially against the background of continuing external restrictions.

The business community has repeatedly stressed that the comfortable exchange rate for exporters is much higher — about 90-95 rubles per dollar. Therefore, the regulator expects that the lifting of restrictions will increase demand for foreign currency and help correct the imbalance.

However, it is unclear whether this decision will lead to a noticeable weakening of the ruble. The demand for foreign currency from importers remains limited, and the volume of export earnings remains high. Yuan interventions within the framework of the budget rule also play a significant role.

The lifting of restrictions can be considered as an attempt by the regulator to normalize the currency regime, restore elements of free movement of capital and test the market reaction. In the coming weeks, analysts' attention will be focused on the dynamics of currency flows and business activity of the population.

If the ruble continues to strengthen, the Central Bank may make additional adjustments, but the current measure indicates the return of the regulator's confidence in the stability of the financial system.

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