The Bank of Russia may move to more active monetary policy easing in the second half of next year, which will lead to a reduction in the key rate to 11-12% by the end of the year. This forecast was announced by Marina Chekurova, head of the Expert RA rating agency, against the background of market expectations before the last meeting of the Central Bank's board of directors this year.
According to her assessment, the regulator has already included in its macro parameters a gradual easing of interest rate policy after a period of tight containment of inflation. At the same time, experts do not expect a sharp decline at the beginning of the year — the main impetus for mitigation, according to analysts, will be in the second half of the year.
The key guideline remains the official forecast of the Bank of Russia, according to which the average key rate next year will be 12-13%. This indicates a cautious approach by the regulator, which will take into account the stability of inflationary processes and inflationary expectations of businesses and the public.
The head of Expert RA emphasized:
"The active decline will begin in the second half of the year."
This comment reflects the position that the Central Bank intends to wait for a steady slowdown in inflation before proceeding to a more noticeable easing of policy.
At the moment, the market's attention is focused on the last meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia this year, which will be held today at 13:30. Most experts surveyed agree that the regulator may reduce the key rate to 16% after this meeting. Such a move would signal the beginning of a policy reversal after a long period of high interest rates.
Reducing the key interest rate is important for the entire economy. Softer monetary conditions can support investment activity, reduce the cost of borrowing for businesses and households, and revive domestic demand. At the same time, the regulator will have to balance between stimulating economic growth and the risks of re-accelerating inflation.
Experts note that the future trajectory of the rate will directly depend on price dynamics, budget policy and the external economic situation. In the context of continued volatility in global markets, the Central Bank is likely to maintain a cautious and step-by-step approach, avoiding sudden movements.
