The ruble exchange rate continued to strengthen steadily against major world currencies in November. According to official data from the Bank of Russia, the dollar declined smoothly during the month, losing 2.83% and reaching 78.2284 rubles, the lowest since July 2025. The euro sank by 2.75%, falling to 90.819 rubles and broke through the level of 90 for the first time since the summer. The Chinese yuan also showed a decrease of minus 2.43%, to 11.0211 rubles.
Analysts agree that the main driver of the strengthening is geopolitical expectations and market hopes for possible progress in negotiations on the Ukrainian conflict. As Natalia Vashchelyuk from the First Management Company notes, the positive background caused a decrease in demand for the currency, while the negative news exerted significantly less pressure than before. The expert compares the current situation with the beginning of 2025, when the ruble also strengthened amid improving international expectations.
The impact of fundamental factors in December will be unevenly distributed. The balance of foreign trade, although it decreased to 89.2 billion dollars in the first nine months of 2025, remains positive and supports the ruble. At the same time, the decrease in export earnings against the background of weak oil conditions is partially offset by a decrease in demand for foreign currency from importers, since the main purchases for the season have already been completed.
Experts emphasize that the key rate of the Bank of Russia remains one of the key instruments for strengthening the ruble. The high cost of loans makes speculative operations against the ruble practically unprofitable, and it is more profitable for holders of foreign exchange earnings to sell it than to borrow rubles at high interest rates. The expected rate cut at the December meeting may be limited, which will also keep the ruble from weakening sharply.
Additional support is provided by currency sales by the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, although the volume of these operations is gradually decreasing. The geopolitical factor, in turn, continues to generate volatility: positive signals lead to a strengthening of the ruble, while negative ones have a much smaller effect.
Analysts' forecasts for December differ, but most estimate the base range for the dollar at 77-83 rubles. An optimistic scenario allows for a move to 70-75, while a pessimistic one allows for a return to 85-90 per dollar.
