In October 2025, the cost of shipping 40-foot containers from China to Russia via direct rail routes increased by 10%. According to the Center for Price Indices (CIC), prices range from 4.5 to 5.1 thousand dollars, depending on the destination. The main reason for the price increase was delays at the border between China and Kazakhstan, where customs inspections have intensified.
The measures introduced in September require mandatory inspection of all cargo at Dostyk and Altynkol stations. As a result, the checks can take up to a month instead of several days. This provoked a reorientation of cargo flows to alternative routes — through Zabaikalsk, Naushki and partly by sea through the Far East.
In addition to the difficult passage of the border, the market is experiencing other challenges: overstocked warehouses, a decrease in the purchasing power of the population and an unstable exchange rate. These factors keep total imports at a low level, despite expectations of seasonal growth.
According to Roman Shagalov, an analyst at the Central Research Center, the increase in transportation costs is not related to an increase in volumes, but is caused by logistical problems. Market participants confirm the price jump, and also add that additional costs include storage at terminals and the inspections themselves, which cost an average of $470 per container.
Companies such as Optimalog have already temporarily abandoned routes through Kazakhstan. Other carriers are forced to pass on new costs to customers. According to representatives of transport companies, depending on the conditions, the cost may increase by 20% or 100%.
In addition, there is a shortage of empty containers, which also pushes up the rates. Additional pressure on the market was exerted by the holidays in China in early October, due to which container turnover traditionally slows down.
Despite the moderate recovery in volumes, experts note that the figures are still below last year's levels. According to forecasts of market participants, instability will continue until the celebration of the Chinese New Year in February–March 2026.
