The Russian trucking market is showing signs of a seasonal slowdown. According to the Atrax platform, the index of activity in the FTL-shipments segment (full downloads) has decreased significantly over the past two weeks — from +37 to +12 points. This indicates a gradual approach to an equilibrium between the number of available goods and vehicles.
In the week from October 6 to October 12, the indicator dropped to +14, which was already the first signal of a decrease in activity after a long period of stable growth. The following week only confirmed the trend: from October 13 to October 19, the index dropped by two more points, reaching +12.
Despite the positive value of the indicator, which still indicates an excess of goods over the number of vehicles, the trend is obvious - transport capacity is becoming more accessible, and order volumes are gradually decreasing. Analysts cite the seasonal downturn as the main reason for this: demand for logistics services traditionally decreases in October, which continues until mid-November.
The market is expected to revive again in the second half of next month. The reason for this is the approach of the New Year's season, when demand for transportation increases, and rates traditionally go up. During this period, companies begin to build up inventories, and logistics chains become busier.
The decline in the Atrax index is not a crisis signal, but rather an indicator of a return to normal cyclical market behavior. In the coming weeks, experts will closely monitor the dynamics: if the trend continues, the market may find itself in a zone where the number of cars exceeds the number of available orders for the first time in a long time.
This will create favorable conditions for shippers, but will require carriers to be flexible in fleet management and respond to changes in demand as soon as possible.
