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The opening of the Strait of Hormuz brought oil down to $74 — and triggered a chain of consequences for the ruble. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti agree: by the autumn of 2026, the dollar will begin to move towards 85 rubles, and by the end of the year, the exchange rate may reach 83-90 rubles. The effect on the ruble will manifest itself with a delay of 1.5–2 months — that is, strong pressure will begin in August–September. Now the ruble is still holding up.

Starting from October 1, 2026, the SPOT system receives an important addition: for traceable goods imported from the EAEU countries, clarified registration rules are introduced. Batch Registration Number (RNPT) In the traceability system, an impending delivery document (DPP) must be received and indicated before importation. This adds a new documentary step to the clearance chain for a significant portion of importers.

Starting in October 2026, a federal law comes into force that establishes uniform rules for the operation of marketplaces for all sites. The following are fixed: prohibition of forced participation in promotions, protection against unjustified blocking, standards for payment deadlines to sellers, responsibility of platforms for the quality of goods in the catalog. Until now, many of these rules existed as voluntary promises of platforms — now it is the law.

Inflation in Brazil accelerated to 5.3% in May, above the Central Bank's target range of 4.5%. Brazil's central bank has taken a pause in rate cuts after the latest move to 13.25%. The Brazilian real continues to weaken against the dollar. For Russian companies conducting settlements with Brazil, this is a signal to review the currency component of contracts.

Against the background of China's readiness for the commercial launch of mBridge, expert Natalia Milchakova outlined a key thesis: "It doesn't matter what geopolitical reasons will become the basis for such a block." This formulates a structural, rather than situational, motivation for diversifying settlement channels — the risk of disconnection from the dollar system remains a constant factor regardless of the current political situation.

From February to early June, shipping from Jebel Ali (UAE) to Novorossiysk increased 2.7 times in price, to $10,360 per 20-foot container. The main reason: the Hormuz crisis has redirected cargo flows through the ports of Oman and Saudi Arabia. A longer route, additional transshipment, and military insurance are all included in the price. Today, Iran has closed Hormuz again, which means continued growth.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russian and Chinese companies have reached the final stage of agreeing on specific contracts for the Power of Siberia-2. The route has been determined, and political decisions have been made at the leadership level. Kremlin spokesman Peskov confirmed that an understanding on key parameters has been reached, and a result is expected in the near future. On May 21, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced China's readiness to strengthen cooperation on t

Russian companies transfer logistics en masse to third-party operators. The reasons are the high key rate and the shortage of warehouse space. It is unprofitable to build your own warehouse at a loan cost above 14%. 3PL operators are recording a sharp increase in demand for comprehensive storage and delivery services.

China has announced the launch of an orbital computing systems program, which processes data directly on spacecraft without transmitting it to Earth. The direction is included in the new five-year technological plan. At the same time, the semiconductor localization program is accelerating: the goal is independence from Western components by 2028. For Russian importers of electronics, this means the emergence of new categories of Chinese components in the medium term.

On the evening of June 14, Iran's Supreme National Security Council approved the final text of the memorandum of understanding. On June 15, Trump announced: "The deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran has been concluded." The US naval blockade is lifted immediately, and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, are halted. The Strait of Hormuz will be fully opened to free navigation on June 19, after the formal signing of the memorandum in Switzerland.