According to the analysis of the digital logistics platform Monopoly, the growth rate of the cost of road transportation within Russia decreased significantly in October 2025. The average weighted fare reached 74.7 rubles per 1 kilometer, which is only 1.2% higher than the September level. For comparison, in September, the increase compared to August was 4.2%, and the annual growth was 11.3%. Experts note that this dynamic is atypical for the autumn period, which is traditionally considered a preparatory stage for Black Friday and New Year's Eve sales.
Alexander Otroshchenko, Director of Data Management at Monopoly, attributes the slowdown to cooling domestic demand and operational difficulties on the border with Kazakhstan, affecting the movement of some goods. Market representatives confirm the absence of a seasonal jump: according to Artem Vaskanyan (NC Logistic), no rate increases are expected, and a significant part of the costs are associated with additional procedures and downtime. Experts also do not predict massive pre-sale discounts, as retailers compensate for logistical costs.
Other market participants note that consumers, especially in the B2B segment, operate on the basis of stocks and postpone active purchases closer to December. Alla Postnikova (Octet Cargo) points out that October is characterized by a smoother price trend compared to previous years. Kirill Lakhin (Unitrade) clarifies that this year there was no usual growth before the October public holidays in China, when many importers strive to deliver goods before the start of the global discount.
The opposite situation is observed in the international segment. According to market participants, rates for trucking from China have risen to their highest levels in the last three years. Yulia Shlenskaya (KBT) estimates the current tariff level as exceeding the December 2024 figures by about $2,500. The reason was the difficulty of transit through Kazakhstan and the increased burden on alternative routes through Manchuria and Mongolia. Queues and unloading record problems persist in the Zabaikalsk area, although the average time to cross the border is 1-2 days.
Experts predict that the high load on international routes will remain at least until the end of December. At the same time, there is an unevenness within the Russian network: transportation from east to west is becoming more expensive by 30%, while there is no growth in the opposite direction.
