The logistics industry is going through a period of high instability — changes in it occur not seasonally, but monthly. At the beginning of 2025, transport owners and railway operators received the main profit, while freight forwarders found themselves at a disadvantage — their costs were rising, and customers insisted on reducing tariffs and meeting deadlines. This led to a sharp reduction in margins.
In the spring, the situation worsened: Chinese and Central Asian carriers offered lower prices, effectively displacing many Russian competitors. Railway and marine logistics companies were particularly affected. The situation stabilized only by the summer, but carriers from the EAEU entered the market, which received the right to domestic transportation and actively applied price dumping.
In June, the volume of shipments via the Russian Railways network fell to one of the lowest values in recent years — only 89.3 million tons. This is due to a weakening in demand, a decrease in the activity of factories and a decrease in the volume of raw materials coming for processing. Despite the increase in the average rate on the ATI index.SU, revenue does not offset the overall cost increase.
New directions, such as routes to Southeast Asia and the international North-South corridor, are just beginning to develop. They have potential, but require significant approvals and incur high costs. At the same time, the old routes lose their effectiveness.
Experts are confident that only those companies that are ready for flexibility, operational restructuring and digitalization of processes will be able to survive. The market is facing a massive transformation, with autonomous vehicles, IT solutions, and new payment models coming into play. The winners will not be those with more equipment, but those who better understand the needs of the client and can adapt to constantly changing conditions.
In the coming years, logistics will not be just a transportation business, but a full-fledged risk management system, time and money of the customer.
