There is a situation in the freight wagon market that is rapidly turning into a risk to supply chains. According to IPEM, by the end of February 2026, there were 158,000 defective and unrepaired freight cars on the Russian Railways network — 11% of the total fleet. At the end of the first half of 2025, the figure was 86,000. The growth over the period is 84%.
The mechanics of the problem are clear and unpleasant. In 2025, rolling stock rental rates dropped significantly, and operators began cutting repair budgets. IPEM cites specific dynamics: monthly repair volumes decreased from 38-39 thousand wagons at the end of 2024 to 20-23 thousand by the beginning of 2026. In March, repairs were partially tightened to about 30 thousand, but the gap has already accumulated.
The most acute effect is seen in the reserve. Currently, about 80% of cars that have been suspended from traffic for a long time are inoperable. This means that there are fewer “fast” wagons to pick up loading, and the market begins to react with price and timing. IPEM expects that the shortage of a serviceable fleet for transportation at loading stations will begin as early as April–May, first in the areas of mass loading of gondola cars and gasoline tanks.
For participants in foreign economic activity, the risk lies in three points.
- Rates and availability. If there is a shortage of a serviceable fleet, the rent may go up. IPEM estimates show a range of +10-20% by the end of the year.
- Shipping schedule. The export chains on the railway are tied to terminal windows and ship calls. The delay in the delivery of the car quickly eats up the time reserve, and then storage, overstaying, and fines for disrupting the slot begin to become more expensive.
- Production. The production of new wagons is also sagging. In January–February 2026, Russian enterprises produced approximately 48% fewer freight cars year-on-year.
Additionally, industry production forecasts for 2026 are discussed in the range of tens of thousands of units, which limits the rate of market recovery.
Russian Railways, for its part, states that it has already withdrawn 16.8 thousand wagons from long–term standstill in February-March in order to provide an empty fleet for the current cargo base.
For businesses, this is a signal to act in advance: confirm the fleet for contracts, lay down a time reserve in key areas, and separately check the availability of tank cars and gondolas for seasonal peaks. In 2026, those who consider the wagon as a resource and fix it in a contractual model, rather than hoping for a “market at the moment,” will benefit.
