Experts from the investment company K33 have published a study questioning the usual theories about the cyclical nature of bitcoin. The title of the report — "This time is really different" — refers to the popular expression in the crypto community "this time is different", which is usually used ironically. However, analysts are confident: The current dynamics of the crypto market is really not similar to the previous phases.
Traditionally, the rise and fall of bitcoin has been explained by four—year cycles associated with halving - a reduction in remuneration to miners. But in 2025, the situation has changed. Currently, the price of BTC is more influenced by macroeconomics, US government policy and institutional demand, including the emergence of ETF funds for bitcoin and the participation of major players like BlackRock and Morgan Stanley.
The report notes that the 2025 cycle is different from the previous ones — instead of temporary bursts of euphoria, the market becomes part of the global financial system. This is confirmed by an increase in institutional investments and political signals in favor of cryptocurrencies, from the development of a strategic bitcoin reserve to a possible change in the leadership of the US Federal Reserve to a more loyal one to lower rates.
Interestingly, K33 analysts have presented an extended valuation model for the crypto market. It is based on six indicators: from the RSI and trading volumes to social trends and the dominance of bitcoin. Most metrics do not indicate overheating yet, which distinguishes the current market from previous peaks.
Experts emphasize that the abandonment of the previous "four-year logic" should also change the approach of investors. Global economic trends are now important for forecasting the exchange rate, not just technical factors.
K33 believes that in the coming years, bitcoin will finally gain a foothold in the institutional environment. And the market, having lost its former cyclical nature, will become more mature, but at the same time less predictable. And this, according to the authors of the report, is the main difference between the current stage: it is really different.
