The altcoin season index, a key indicator tracking the outperformance of alternative cryptocurrencies relative to bitcoin, has reached its highest levels since December last year. Formally, this signals the beginning of a long—awaited period for many traders - the "altseason". However, leading market analysts urge investors to be careful, pointing out that the dry statistics may not be hiding a full-fledged trend, but only a temporary market anomaly that requires careful analysis.
Experts pay attention to the method of calculating the index, which has its limitations. The criterion for the onset of the altseason is the outstripping growth of 75% of the top 50 coins compared to bitcoin within 90 days. The current situation does satisfy this formal rule, but the scale of the gap remains insignificant. If bitcoin showed a decline over a certain period, then altcoins for the most part showed not so much active growth as a smaller drawdown or a slight strengthening. Thus, the statistical threshold has been passed, but there is still no real boom that would be felt by a wide mass of retail investors.
An important signal, however, is a change in market behavior. Previously, bursts of altcoin activity were almost always linked to sharp spikes in the price of bitcoin and quickly faded as soon as the main cryptocurrency entered the correction phase. Now, alternative assets are showing some stability even against the background of a decline in BTC. This may indicate the formation of their own fundamental support, which is a positive, albeit preliminary, sign for investors.
Experts identify several drivers that can support interest in certain segments of altcoins. Firstly, there is a general revival of trading activity after the summer lull, which coincided with the expectation of a key decision by the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate. Lowering the rate traditionally has a positive effect on risky assets, which include cryptocurrencies. Secondly, there is a growing interest in projects with a proven economic model — those that carry out buybacks (token repurchase from the market), generate real cash flow and have an organic demand for their services.
At the same time, the modern market is highly fragmented. Thousands of new tokens appear daily, and the liquidity is distributed point-by-point. Not all altcoins are showing growth en masse, as was the case in previous "seasons," but only those that are supported by specific positive news or the actions of major players. For example, the purchase of a significant amount of a token by a large media company can cause a sharp jump in its exchange rate, without having a significant impact on the entire sector as a whole.
The key test for the current surge in activity will be the upcoming Fed meeting. The market has already partially taken into account the standard rate reduction in prices, so after the official announcement, profit-taking and a short-term correction are possible. However, more aggressive steps by the regulator may give the trend a new acceleration. Investors' attention is also focused on traditional stock indexes such as the Russell 2000, which includes stocks of small companies and has a high correlation with altcoins, as both assets are perceived as high-risk.
Thus, although the formal signs of the altseason are obvious, experts advise against giving in to premature euphoria. The current situation is more like a phase of accumulation and selection of high-quality assets, rather than a period of unrestrained growth of the entire market. For an investor, this means that a particularly careful approach is needed to select projects, paying attention to their fundamentals and real usefulness, and not just to short-term price dynamics. A stable trend can be confirmed only when altcoins begin to show steady growth, regardless of the market fluctuations of bitcoin.
