The dollar exchange rate in the Russian market dropped to around 78 rubles, updating the minimum values for a long period. The currency dynamics reflect a combination of macroeconomic, trade and regulatory factors that have been generating steady demand for the ruble in recent months and reducing the need for foreign currency.
One of the key reasons for the strengthening of the ruble remains the high rigidity of monetary policy. The continued increased key rate stimulates the inflow of ruble liquidity into the financial system and makes carry trade operations attractive to domestic market participants. At the same time, importers are reducing foreign currency purchases, as a slowdown in domestic demand limits the volume of purchases abroad.
The ruble is further supported by the structure of foreign trade. Export earnings continue to flow into the country, including in national currencies, while imports have stabilized in a number of areas. This reduces the pressure on the foreign exchange market and generates a surplus of foreign currency supply.
Currency regulation also plays a role. The requirements for the repatriation of export earnings, as well as the practice of settlements in rubles and friendly currencies, reduce the share of the dollar in settlements. As a result, the US currency loses its former dominant role in foreign trade operations, which directly affects the exchange rate.
Experts also pay attention to the psychological factor. The level of 78 rubles is perceived by the market as a strong benchmark, at which some participants fix their currency positions, strengthening the movement. However, the stability of current values will depend on further decisions of the regulator, the dynamics of budget expenditures and changes in the external economic environment.
For businesses, the strengthening of the ruble has multidirectional consequences. Importers get the opportunity to reduce the cost of supplies and logistics, while exporters face a reduction in ruble revenue. This may increase pressure on the marginality of export-oriented industries and increase interest in currency hedging instruments.
The financial authorities have previously stressed that they do not focus on a specific exchange rate level, considering it as a result of the balance of supply and demand. Nevertheless, the sharp strengthening of the ruble has traditionally become a factor for more careful budget and monetary planning.
