The logistics industry is beginning to feel the effects of the weakening consumer activity of the population more acutely. This was stated by Ilya Ilyin, Head of the Banking and Financial Markets Analysis Department at the PSB Analytics Center, at the TransRussia Summit forum. He noted that against the background of increasing economic difficulties, not only banking activity is decreasing, but also the volume of transportation — people spend less, respectively, less goods need to be transported.
According to the estimates of the PSB, economic growth by the end of 2025 may slow down to 1.5%. This is one of the most favorable scenarios, the expert emphasizes. Analysts' attention is drawn to key macroeconomic indicators. The RSBI index, which reflects sales of small and medium-sized businesses, dropped to 42.9, indicating a decline. A similar pattern is observed in the PMI: in industry it is 47%, in the service sector — 48.6%. Values below 50 are considered signs of a reduction in business activity.
Ilyin also focused on banks' reserves for problem loans.: they reached 1.2% of the portfolio of legal entities, which is twice the normal level. In the small and medium-sized business sector, this indicator has already come close to 5%. All this is reflected in the cost of borrowing — despite the reduction in the key interest rate, banks are in no hurry to review the loan terms.
Nevertheless, retail remains interested in investing in logistics. Fyodor Pavlovsky, Deputy General Director for Logistics at Magnit, said that despite the difficult economic situation, infrastructure modernization continues. The priority is the introduction of digital solutions, warehouse automation, and the development of long—haul and unmanned transport technologies on federal highways.
For example, the company is implementing a project to increase the volume of transportation by coupling two semi-trailers, which makes it possible to deliver twice as much cargo with the same resources. Tests on drones are already underway on the M-11 highway, and in the next 3-5 years their introduction can significantly change the cargo transportation market.
The topic of warehouse automation has not been ignored either — large investments have been directed to a new distribution center in Podolsk, where modern technological solutions have been introduced. While the return on investment is not obvious, however, according to forecasts, in a few years they may fully pay off.
Experts still expect that with a reduction in the key interest rate, consumer demand will begin to recover. According to Ilyin, citizens' savings are still growing, and pent-up demand may appear next year. People will tend to save less and spend more, which can give logistics a new boost.
