Russian oil supplies to India in December 2025 may show the most noticeable slowdown in the last three years. This is the conclusion reached by Kpler analysts who track global oil flows based on shipping data. Their calculations were published by Bloomberg.
According to preliminary estimates, the average daily volume of Russian oil exports to India in December will be about 1.1 million barrels. This is the lowest figure since November 2022. At the same time, the current estimate still exceeds the more conservative forecast previously announced by the Indian authorities.
The key moment was the second week of December, when the pace of shipments dropped sharply. According to Kpler, during this period, the volume of imports decreased to 712 thousand barrels per day.
"Russian oil supplies to India slowed to 712,000 barrels per day in the second week of December, and then increased," Kpler analysts said, commenting on the dynamics of shipping data.
For comparison, in November, the volume of imports was estimated to be significantly higher— at 1.8 million barrels per day. This highlights the instability of December shipments and points to the high sensitivity of the Indian market to logistical and price factors.
Experts attribute the decline in December volumes to a combination of reasons. Among them are seasonal adjustments in demand, tanker fleet overloading, changes in supply routes, and the cautious attitude of refiners adapting to fluctuations in global prices. The reassessment of commercial terms, including discounts and freight rates, also plays an important role.
At the same time, India remains one of the key buyers of Russian oil, and a short-term slowdown does not mean a strategic reversal. Analysts emphasize that the recovery in volumes in the second half of the month indicates continued interest in supplies, despite temporary disruptions.
Thus, the December recession looks more like a tactical pause in the global restructuring of oil flows than as a steady trend. The final data for the month will show how deep this correction will be and whether it will persist at the beginning of the new year.
