The year 2026 is becoming a turning point for Russian investors in terms of financial strategy. After a long period of tight monetary policy, the market is entering a phase of gradual easing, which changes not only the profitability of individual instruments, but also the architecture of investment portfolios. The key rate, according to the regulator's expectations, will decrease cautiously and gradually, following a slowdown in inflation, which means the end of the era of "risk-free high returns."
According to forecasts, the average level of the key rate in 2026 will be 13-15%, with a possible reduction to 12% and even 10% by the end of the year with favorable macroeconomic dynamics. At the same time, the Bank of Russia maintains a strict alignment of decisions with inflation expectations, which eliminates sudden movements and makes the market more predictable, but at the same time requires investors to actively manage their capital.
Inna Chernykh, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, emphasizes that in the new conditions, the rate is no longer the main source of profitability, but is becoming a benchmark for asset redistribution.:
"Lowering the key rate will be possible only with a steady slowdown in price growth, so it is important for investors not to wait for a one-time effect, but to build a strategy for several years ahead."
Bank deposits remain important as a tool for short-term liquidity, but their role in long-term capital preservation is decreasing. As the interest rate decreases, the profitability of deposits will shrink, and their ability to compensate for inflation will weaken. This makes contributions an auxiliary, rather than a basic element of the portfolio.
Against this background, the attractiveness of bonds, primarily OFZs, is increasing. With lower rates, they get a double advantage: a stable coupon and an increase in market value. The expert assessment assumes a cumulative return on government securities of up to 25-30% by the end of 2026, while maintaining the current trend. Corporate bonds can boost yields, but require a more thorough analysis of issuers against the backdrop of a slowing economy.
The stock market is also getting a boost. Stocks traditionally benefit in the rate reduction phase due to cheaper capital and increased investment activity by companies. At the same time, this instrument remains the most sensitive to market fluctuations, which requires strict diversification and a long-term investment horizon.
Gold occupies a special place in the 2026 strategy. Its growth in previous years was driven not only by inflation, but also by geopolitical risks, weakening reserve currencies, and active purchases by central banks. According to the expert, the share of gold in the portfolio at the level of 10-20% becomes not a speculative, but a protective solution, especially with an investment horizon of three years.
Real estate remains relevant, but it is no longer a universal tool. The high entry threshold, low liquidity and dependence on high-current rates make it a choice for a narrow circle of investors who are ready for a long-term capital freeze.
As a result, 2026 forms a new investment model: from passive income expectation to active asset structure management. The winners will not be those who guess the moment, but those who build a balanced portfolio taking into account risks, horizons and macroeconomic signals.
