The global air cargo transportation market ended 2025 in a state of structural disruption. Despite a 4% year-on-year increase in traffic volumes, market participants are increasingly abandoning long-term contractual obligations in favor of short-term agreements and spot rates. These are the conclusions reached by Xeneta analysts in a report published on January 7, 2026.
The fourth quarter was indicative of a change in contract logic. The share of new annual contracts decreased to 24%, which is 20 percentage points lower than in the previous quarter. At the same time, the popularity of short—term contracts has increased: 32% of agreements were concluded for a period of six months, and another 26% for three months. At the same time, about half of all traffic volumes are still serviced at spot rates or under contracts for up to one month.
Analysts attribute this trend to ongoing market uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions, primarily in the Red Sea region, have led to a redistribution of cargo flows. Some shippers were forced to switch from sea transport to aviation, especially for urgent and high-value shipments. This supported demand, but did not lead to an increase in profitability.
By the end of December 2025, the demand for air transportation increased by 6% year-on-year, exceeding the supply growth of 5%. However, the global average spot rate dropped to $2.83 per kilogram, which is 4% lower than in December 2024. Thus, the market found itself in a situation of volume growth with falling tariffs.
Commenting on the results of the year, Niall van de Waw, Xeneta's Chief Director for Air Transportation, noted that instability played a paradoxically positive role for both sides of the market.
"The current situation eventually turned out to be beneficial for both carriers and shippers," he stressed, explaining that airlines received stable volumes, and customers had the opportunity to operate at lower tariffs in the second half of the year.
The dynamics of the rates varied significantly across the board. On the Europe—North America route, the annual decline reached 13%, despite a sharp seasonal increase in December. From Southeast Asia to Europe, fares decreased by 11% year-on-year, and on routes between Northeast Asia and North America, the market showed relative stability.
The Chinese direction deserves special attention. Rates from China to Europe and North America in December were only 1% lower than last year's level, but a monthly increase of 9% indicates a temporary shortage of capacity. At the same time, cross-border e-commerce from China to the United States declined sharply due to new tariff restrictions, while the flow of parcels to the EU continued to grow.
The regulatory environment is becoming an additional factor of pressure on the market. From July 1, 2026, the EU introduces fixed customs duties on small shipments, and China tightens tax reporting for global e-commerce platforms. These measures increase operational risks and strengthen the desire of market participants to maintain maximum flexibility.
Xeneta's forecast for 2026 remains subdued, with demand expected to grow by 2-3%. However, the experience of 2025 confirms that the air cargo market remains extremely sensitive to external shocks, and the balance can change in a matter of months.
