Marketplaces can "assign" tariffs: the point of no return is control of a third of the transportation market
The Institute for Transport Development has recorded a shift that market participants are already feeling in practice: the largest retailers and marketplaces are becoming the main drivers of demand in trucking — and at the same time potential future consolidators of the industry.
The key conclusion of the study sounds harsh: the process will be difficult to stop when large ecosystems take control of about a third of all traffic. At this point, the very nature of pricing is changing: instead of a "market" with an infinite number of players and different costs, there is the possibility of an assigned tariff — that is, prices according to the formula set by the one who controls the flow.
Why is the "taxi platform model" not being transferred to one-to-one cargo transportation
Analysts explain that in the freight segment, digital transformation runs into a fundamental barrier: there is no transparent model of the residual value of commercial vehicles, and the industry remains extremely "market—oriented" - with high tariff volatility and a multitude of uncontrolled intermediaries and carriers, each of which has its own cost calculation.
In such conditions, it is difficult to build a franchised carrier "package" that can be replicated and standardized, as happened in passenger transportation. Therefore, the only realistic way to stability, according to the institute, is to fix the price and switch to a formula tariff, and those who influence the final price of goods and have data, warehouses and fleets have the resource to "dictate the formula."
What does this mean for the market and for foreign economic activity
- Logistics is like an expense, not a profit. For large retailers, transportation is part of the cost of the supply chain, so they can bid differently than classic carriers who need margins. This shifts competition towards scale and efficiency.
- LTL and "reverse" as a mechanism of market pull-in. The control of warehouses, data, and combined shipments allows ecosystems to attract other people's fleets to themselves: carriers will strive to fill downtime through the platform, even if the main business is their "own" customer.
- For import and domestic distribution, the point of strength is changing. It is important for foreign economic activity companies to understand that the cost of the "last big mile" within the country (transportation from the hub to the warehouse/production/distribution) will increasingly depend on the rules of the largest platforms. Where freight forwarders' tenders used to be decided, tomorrow capacity allocation algorithms can be solved.
Consolidation risks that analysts warn about
The Institute separately notes the downside: access to finance can lead to resource dispersion, and dominance can lead to abuse at the management decision level. In other words, the market may become more "manageable", but not necessarily more efficient in the operation of transport.
