Starting in 2026, an increase in the VAT rate to 22% will come into force in Russia, which will cause a significant increase in logistics costs and create serious pressure on the financial flows of B2B companies. This change threatens to be a blow to those businesses that have not provided reserves for increased costs. The logistics industry is expecting a wave of budget redistribution, and experts are already offering options for adapting to new conditions.
Pavel Volkov, Commercial Director of CGTN Oversized, is confident that businesses will have to look for more efficient approaches to transportation, from increasing loading density to combining various transport routes and outsourcing. This will lead to a change of focus: from the race for the lowest price, to the choice of logistics partners capable of providing real value and stable supplies.
In the railway sector, the VAT increase will affect all participants without exception, while in road transport companies operating in the legal field will be particularly affected. The rise in the cost of fuel, leasing, and components will increase pressure on the "white" segment of the market, while widening the gap between it and the "gray" players.
Sergey Vereshchagin, the manager of LogLab, points to the additional burden on the companies' working capital, especially in the context of the current high key rate of the Central Bank. These factors will trigger a slight but inevitable increase in tariffs. Rental and leasing obligations will also increase in price, which is especially sensitive for small and medium-sized businesses.
Anatoly Tokarev from Phortis emphasizes: under the current economic conditions, many companies will not be able to fulfill their financial obligations under leasing, which will lead to the return of equipment to lessors. As a result, the tax burden will be partially shifted to the consumer, causing a local price spike.
In 2025, budget revenues from VAT decreased by more than 1 trillion rubles. The reasons are a reduction in the volume of imports, a change in its structure and an increase in tax breaks. Now the government hopes to restore the balance by increasing the tax base, but this is a test of strength for the logistics sector.
