New logistical realities of 2025: where is the market moving and who is winning

New logistical realities of 2025: where is the market moving and who is winning
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The first half of 2025 proved to be a turning point for the logistics sector. The decline in trade with China, the active search for alternative destinations and the growing demand for oversized transportation are forming a new market structure. Tatiana Kulyabina, CEO of the international logistics company Holding Finance Broker, shares observations and forecasts on key trends.

The main event was a decrease in the volume of trade between Russia and China by more than 8%. This is the first drop in the last four years. At the same time, China still retains the leadership in imports with a share of about 39%, especially in such categories as equipment, automobiles, chemicals, clothing and furniture. However, large companies are beginning to review their strategy, expecting a relaxation of sanctions and the possibility of returning to Western suppliers.

Against the background of restrictions, China remains the most important logistics destination. In particular, the demand for the delivery of oversized goods increased by 40%. Companies massively purchase heavy industrial equipment, metal structures, components for bridges and power lines, shipbuilding and energy. The organization of such transportation requires experience in international logistics, work with regulatory authorities and knowledge of routes.

A striking example is a project for the delivery of a production line weighing more than 180 tons. The delivery required sea and motor transport, obtaining permits to travel along federal highways, traffic police escort and precise customs clearance. This confirms that even companies with their own fleet choose outsourcing due to saving time, reducing risks and meeting deadlines.

At the same time, Russia is strengthening logistical ties with India. The volume of supplies from this country has doubled. The main areas are machine tools, electronics, consumer goods, food and chemicals. Despite the difficulties in logistics, slow digitalization and bureaucracy, India is becoming a promising market, especially in the fields of IT, pharma, engineering and e-commerce.

There is also a growing interest in Vietnam and Malaysia, from where the import of furniture and components has intensified. These countries are becoming a reliable alternative to China, but they require competent logistics and multimodal supply chains.

Against the background of these changes, the business is changing its approach to choosing logistics partners. Previously, long-term contracts were preferred, but now entrepreneurs are ready to experiment and actively test new providers. Chinese intermediaries offer low prices, but often hide additional costs and lack infrastructure. Therefore, it is important to choose companies with offices in key countries, transparent conditions and stable links with carriers.

Expert advice includes checking the partner's documents and court history, rejecting suspiciously low rates, and starting cooperation with a trial party. Successful testing is the best indicator of quality and reliability.

Globally, logistics continues to move towards digitalization. The use of AI, GPS, and IoT devices allows you to more accurately predict delivery times, reduce costs, and minimize risks. This is especially true for the delivery of oversized and sanctioned goods, where each day of downtime can cost millions.

It is important for companies working in logistics not only to increase volumes, but also to be flexible: combine routes, choose reliable contractors and use modern technologies. Success in the new reality is determined not by scale, but by the ability to adapt — and in this, Holding Finance Broker relies on personalization of services, transparency of processes and full customer support at all stages.