Despite statements by the largest shipping companies about plans to raise tariffs, the cost of container transportation on trans-Pacific routes remained virtually unchanged at the end of August. According to the Freightos Baltic Index, the cost of shipping a forty—foot container (FEU) from Asia to the west coast of the United States remained at $1,700, and to the east coast - $2,700.
Experts note that carriers were trying to implement the September General Rate Increases (GRIs), which temporarily caused tariffs to jump by $400-500 per FEU. However, the dynamics of demand and excess capacity in the market cast doubt on the sustainability of these changes. On the eve of the Golden Week in China (October 1-8), when transportation activity traditionally decreases, operators announce an increase in the number of available flights, which also keeps fares from rising.
According to the SONAR analytical system, the number of TEUs booked with delivery to the United States increased by only 0.17% last week. At the same time, volumes were 9.35% lower than in July and decreased by almost 18% compared to the same period last year. The exception was Vietnam, where production increased by 4.88% year-on-year.
Even if the tariff increases are partially implemented, they will remain significantly lower than last year's figures. For comparison, in 2024, the minimum cost of transportation in April was $3,000 per FEU, and in peak season it reached up to $7,000-8,000 on the west coast of the United States.
The situation is complicated by both an excess fleet and geopolitical risks. Many major shipping companies continue to avoid routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
There is also a decrease in European destinations. The cost of shipping a container from Asia to Northern Europe dropped by 7% in a week, from $3,400 to $2,841 per FEU. Fares on the Asia–Mediterranean route decreased by 2%, to about $3,000 per FEU.
Thus, current trends indicate that it will be difficult for carriers to keep up with the planned rate increases. Pressure from weak demand and excess capacity continues to shape the market in favor of shippers.
