Foresight as a breakthrough tool: HSE professor urges businesses to build the future rather than predict the past
At the last TransRussia Summit forum, Alexander Chulok, Professor at the National Research University of Higher School of Economics, director of the ISIEZ Center for Scientific and Technological Forecasting, said that companies that ignore long-term trends and do not use foresight methods risk losing their competitiveness. According to the expert, forecasting based on past data no longer reflects reality and can lead to strategic mistakes.
Chulok stressed that business needs to realize that scenario planning is not a theoretical discipline, but a practical tool that helps prepare for possible changes. He recalled that many successful companies, such as Nokia and LG, have lost their leadership precisely because they underestimated new directions of development and changes in consumer behavior.
The expert noted that modern business should build sustainability through the development of new competencies and rethinking key performance indicators. In his opinion, traditional KPIs like GDP or sales volume no longer reflect the true effectiveness of organizations. They are being replaced by new criteria — the level of employee happiness, environmental responsibility, and technological sovereignty.
As an example of the successful application of scenario planning, Stocking cited the Shell case. In the 1970s, analyst Pierre Vak proposed a scenario in which key decisions were made by countries rather than corporations. Despite skepticism, this forecast turned out to be accurate: it was precisely this situation that was realized during the 1973 oil crisis, which allowed Shell to emerge stronger than its competitors. This example has become a symbol of how good foresight helps prepare for change.
The professor also spoke about strategic approaches to planning in different countries. China is striving to become a "great futuristic power" by 2050, developing five areas — economy, innovation, green energy, culture and education. Germany is focusing on technological sovereignty, space and ocean exploration, while South Korea is investing in smart logistics and carbon-neutral technologies. Japan is building the concept of a "5.0 Society" where technology is integrated into human life, ensuring individual development and health into old age.
Speaking about the trends affecting logistics, Chulok noted a number of key factors: new pandemics, antibiotic resistance, population aging, the development of the sharing economy and tourism, as well as the growth of cybersecurity threats. According to him, these processes are forming a new architecture of the global economy, where adaptation becomes more important than prediction.
In conclusion, the professor asked the main question that every top manager should face: "What needs does your company meet - and will they change in 5, 10 or 15 years?" He urged businesses not to limit themselves to rapid response, but to use scientific foresight methods to shape the future and prevent systemic risks. According to the expert, it is strategic thinking and readiness for uncertainty that will become the main competitive advantage of the next decade.
