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Analysts expect the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to reduce the key rate to 12-13% by the end of 2026. Since June 1, the government has been changing the mechanism of business subsidies: the calculation of compensation is linked to three ranges of the Central Bank's rate. At the current 14.5%, the maximum subsidy will be 3.25 percentage points for importers and logistics companies planning credit financing, as the horizon for reducing the cost of money is getting closer.

Russian companies transfer logistics en masse to third-party operators. The reasons are the high key rate and the shortage of warehouse space. It is unprofitable to build your own warehouse at a loan cost above 14%. 3PL operators are recording a sharp increase in demand for comprehensive storage and delivery services.

The Central Bank lowered the key rate to 15.5% and admitted that further decisions may be more abrupt or with pauses. For foreign economic activity, this directly affects the cost of working capital, inventory policy, and settlement terms for import contracts, especially with a long logistics cycle.

The reduction of the Bank of Russia's key rate in 2026 is changing the logic of investment decisions for private and institutional investors. The period of high deposit returns is coming to an end, giving way to the need for active capital management, diversification and risk reassessment. We understand which tools come to the fore and how to adapt the strategy to the new conditions from an expert point of view.

The Bank of Russia may reduce its key rate to 11-12% by the end of next year if inflation continues to slow steadily. According to Marina Chekurova, head of the Expert RA agency, active monetary policy easing will begin in the second half of the year, and the market is already waiting for the first step from the Central Bank today.

The Bank of Russia continued to adjust its monetary policy. Since December 22, 2025, the key rate has been reduced to 16%, reflecting a slowdown in inflation and the regulator's desire to return price growth to the target level in the medium term.

The Bank of Russia lowered its key rate to 16.5%. Experts explain why the regulator took this step and predict how the decision will affect the ruble, inflation and the stock market.