April 2026 marked the eighth consecutive step in easing the Central Bank's monetary policy: the rate dropped to 14.5%. This is already almost twice as low as the peak of 21% set at the end of 2024. But for a business, 14.5% is still expensive.
"Measures to combat inflation are yielding results, I think we have the right to expect a reduction in the key rate," Putin said at an investment meeting on June 10. The broadcast was hosted by VGTRK.
This is not a directive from the Central Bank — the regulator is formally independent and makes decisions on its own. But the presidential signal on the eve of the meeting means that the political space for reduction is open.
What the market says
The key rate swap market in early June showed expectations of a decrease of 1.25 percentage points, that is, to 13.25%. Egor Susin, Managing Director of Gazprombank Private Banking, recorded exactly such a forecast at the end of May.
SberCIB analysts call a 50bp decline to 14% at the June meeting the most likely. Finam is looking further: 12-13% by the end of 2026.
One limitation: analytics banki.ru They warn that even with low inflation, the Central Bank is unlikely to decide to reduce by more than 50 bps at a time. There are too many pro-inflationary risks in the second half of the year.
How inflation helps the argument
The April data suggested a decline: inflation slowed down in key components. Products fell in price (from 3.9% to 2.5%), non—food products - from 6.2% to 4.2%, services — from 8.7% to 7.2%.
The May data has not yet been fully published. If the trend persists, there are enough arguments for a 50-75 bp decline.
What does this change for the foreign trade business?
With a decrease to 13.25%, the cost of credit financing purchases from China is reduced by about 8-9% compared to the fall of 2025 (the rate was 21%). For companies using import leverage: every reduction in the rate is a direct saving.
Specifically: a shipment from China for 10 million rubles, a loan for 90 days. At a rate of 21%— the cost of money is 525 thousand rubles per quarter. At a rate of 13.25% — 330 thousand rubles. The difference is 195 thousand rubles per batch.
For companies that postponed investments in warehouses and infrastructure before the rate cut: the horizon for reviewing investment plans is September–October 2026.
