The key rate of 21% at the end of 2024 seemed to be a peak from which they would slowly descend. Since then, the Central Bank has already reduced it to 14.5% in a few steps. The consensus of analysts now looks at 12-13% by December 2026, if inflation continues to decline towards the target.
Why is this important for business in foreign economic activity
The cost of credit is one of the main factors determining the import economy. At a rate of 21%, lending for the purchase of goods turned into a financial burden that could eat up the entire margin in average profitability positions. At 12-13%, the picture is different.
A specific example: the purchase of a shipment of goods from China for 10 million rubles with a leverage of 90 days. At a rate of 21%, the loan cost is about 525 thousand rubles per quarter. At a rate of 12% — 300 thousand rubles. The difference of 225 thousand rubles per batch is a real profit or an opportunity to lower the price for the buyer.
Subsidies from June 1: new mechanics
In parallel with the reduction in the rate, the government is changing the subsidy mechanism. Starting from June 1, compensation is calculated according to three ranges of the Central Bank's rate: — At a rate above 14%, the subsidy is 3.25 percentage points. — At a rate of 10-14%, the subsidy is 2.5 percentage points. — At a rate below 10%, the subsidy is 2 percentage points.
The amount of the subsidy decreases with the rate, which means that the absolute reduction in loan costs with the subsidy will increase as the rate decreases.
What does this mean for planning
For companies considering large investments in warehouse infrastructure or credit financing of procurement activities: the horizon for reducing the rate is the end of 2026 — the beginning of 2027. Projects that don't work at 14.5% can start working at 12%.
At the same time, warehouse construction is not getting cheaper yet: prices for materials have decreased by 4%, but rising costs for machinery and salaries have kept costs down. The credit burden will decrease, but the construction burden will not.
