The first half of 2025 was an ordeal for Russian logistics. Data from the Federal Customs Service shows that exports decreased by 6.3%, while imports increased by only 0.8%. These changes are reflected in the work of carriers, business strategies, and cooperation with international partners.
The largest foreign trade flows are still directed to Asian countries, but the volume of trade with them decreased by 2.6%. Including exports to China showed a decline of more than 4%. Although such corrections are often no longer perceived as a shock for logisticians, they continue to be under pressure due to the need to rebuild routes and adapt supply chains.
The massive growth of logistics operators in 2022 turned into painful filtering: dozens of companies could not withstand competition, currency fluctuations and non-payments. It is estimated that by the end of 2024, about 30% of sector participants ended the year with losses, and 15-20% left the market at the border of 2024/2025. This has left a noticeable mark: today the market is cleaner, but more demanding of stability and efficiency.
The border with Azerbaijan has become one of the hotbeds of problems: inspections can now delay shipments for 10-14 days instead of the usual 2-3. In response, many carriers are reorienting to routes through Kazakhstan, although they are 15-20% more expensive. This reconfiguration leads to higher costs and more complicated planning.
The situation in the logistics labor market is also changing: according to hh.ru vacancies in transport and logistics decreased by almost 25%, and the number of applicants increased by 50%. What is especially striking is that experienced 35+ specialists who previously worked in leadership positions are increasingly appearing among applicants, but now they are forced to take on middle roles. At the same time, some of the management functions are automated.: productivity per employee has increased, which makes it possible to reduce administrative staff.
Against the background of these challenges, the intensification of import substitution is noted. The industrial production index for the first half of the year increased by 1.4% compared to the same period in 2024, which indicates that part of the business is refocusing on domestic production and supplies to friendly countries. The reduction in the cost of loans after the reduction in the key interest rate has become an additional incentive for this process.
To sum up, the logistics market is no longer the chaotic one it was in 2022. The industry has now adapted to the new rules: more stable prices, strict filtering of participants, and long-term contracts. Nevertheless, it is still difficult to work, especially at borders and on international routes.
For the second stage of 2025, the industry expects moderate growth: as history shows, from September to December, shipments often increase by 30-40%. Under the current conditions, growth is likely to be more restrained, and tariff hikes are within the range of inflation. The competition will not be based on prices, but on the quality of service, speed and reliability.
The key factors that will determine the fate of industry participants are technological flexibility, risk management skills, willingness to merge and consolidate, as well as the creation of sustainable logistics chains against the backdrop of global instability.
