Russia and Brazil are looking for new goods for trade: why $12 billion is not the limit

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The trade turnover between Russia and Brazil has reached $12.4 billion, but a narrow commodity structure remains. Experts are discussing the need to diversify trade and the risks of dependence on fertilizers and coffee. Prospects for cooperation at SPIEF 2025.

A Russia-Brazil business dialogue took place on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, during which experts and officials from the two countries discussed the prospects for trade and economic cooperation. Despite the impressive figures of trade turnover, which reached $ 12.4 billion in 2024, the meeting participants agreed that the potential is far from exhausted.

This year's statistics show continued positive dynamics. According to the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, in the first four months of 2025, mutual trade increased by 10% compared to the same period of the previous year. Brazil's Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to the Russian Federation, Rodrigo de Lima Baena Soares, provided even more recent data: in January-May of this year, the volume of trade between the countries has already reached $ 5 billion.

However, as Vladimir Ilyichev, Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, noted, quantitative indicators are only one side of the coin. The main problem lies in the narrow commodity structure of trade. Russian exports to Brazil are concentrated around a limited list of items: mineral fertilizers, food products, metals and timber. Brazilian supplies to Russia are also not diverse and consist mainly of coffee, iron ore, meat products and soybeans.

Such an imbalance creates certain risks for the stability of trade relations. Tatiana Mashkova, Director General of the National Committee for the Promotion of Economic Cooperation with Latin American Countries, drew attention to potential challenges in the future. According to her, Brazil is actively accumulating stocks of fertilizers, which are a key commodity of Russian exports, which at some point may lead to a reduction in supplies.

Another problem hindering trade diversification is the lack of awareness among the business communities of the two countries about the possibilities of mutually beneficial cooperation. The lack of comprehensive information about markets, regulatory requirements, and potential partners hinders the establishment of new business relationships.

The Brazilian ambassador, commenting on the current situation, acknowledged the existence of a negative trade balance for his country, but stressed that the growth in trade demonstrates the reliability of partnership relations between the two countries. He expressed confidence in the possibility of increasing Brazilian exports to Russia.

Experts agree that systemic measures are needed for a qualitative leap in trade relations. Pharmaceutical products, chemical industry, mechanical engineering, and high-tech goods and services are among the potential areas for expanding the product range. The development of investment cooperation and the creation of joint ventures could be an additional incentive for trade growth.

The mechanisms of the intergovernmental commission on trade and economic cooperation, as well as the activities of business associations and industry unions, have an important role to play in overcoming existing barriers. Regular dialogue at various levels allows timely identification and resolution of emerging issues.

The participants of the business dialogue at the SPIEF expressed confidence that, despite the existing challenges, trade and economic relations between Russia and Brazil have significant potential for growth. Diversification of the commodity structure, increasing mutual investments and strengthening trust between the business communities of the two countries can become the basis for bringing cooperation to a qualitatively new level.

Special attention was paid to the need to develop logistics chains and financial infrastructure capable of supporting the growing trade turnover. The improvement of settlement mechanisms and insurance of trading operations was also named among the priorities.