According to an analysis of the ten largest carriers, 24 of the 46 direct Far East–Europe services already use the Red Sea. On the Mediterranean route, 70% of deployed capacity goes through Suez, and on the North European route, 58%.
CMA CGM accounts for 1.3 million TEU of Suez transit and effectively never stopped operating on this route throughout the period of instability. MSC resumed transit in August and now sends 2.2 million TEU through 11 loops. The Gemini alliance of Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk began returning in July, with a combined 1.76 million TEU. The Ocean Alliance, including Cosco and OOCL, restored six services with 1.27 million TEU.
Five of the ten carriers have confirmed the resumption of transit in the past month. Three more, HMM, ONE and Yang Ming of the Premier Alliance, have announced an imminent return. If they keep their promise, only Evergreen and Zim will remain outside the Suez route. The latter is likely to stay away the longest: the Houthis openly name the Israeli carrier as a target.
The picture is uneven. Some operators choose an asymmetric scheme: to Europe via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and back around the Cape of Good Hope. This hybrid approach hedges against a possible escalation but complicates planning for cargo owners.
The return to Suez is explained by two factors. The first is geopolitical: the situation in the region has given carriers room to manoeuvre. The second is economic: fuel remains expensive. Very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) trades on the Singapore spot market at $881 per tonne, 97% higher than a year ago. The shorter route through Suez directly reduces bunker consumption.
For Russian importers buying goods in China and other Asian countries, the shorter transit leg means potentially faster sea delivery to European hub ports. At the same time, high fuel prices limit the decline in freight rates: carriers record savings on the route but are in no hurry to pass them on in tariffs, especially as shippers, according to analysts, now have a stronger negotiating position.
If the Premier Alliance completes the transition in the coming weeks, the vast majority of regular container capacity between Asia and Europe will pass through Suez. Keeping the Cape loops as backup services, however, shows that carriers do not consider the risks in the Red Sea fully eliminated.
Related news:
- Northern Sea Route: 20 days to Europe instead of 40 via Suez — an alternative to Suez in delivery time
- A container ship sank in the Strait of Hormuz: how to choose a route — how to choose a route amid maritime risks
- FESCO launched container trains from Urumqi to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan — a new container service from China to Central Asia
- Wuhan opened a direct container train route to Ulyanovsk — a new rail route from China to Russia
