The shortfall of 123 billion rubles is not an abstract estimate, but a direct consequence of how the tax logic for goods from foreign sites is currently arranged. A foreign seller who trades directly through AliExpress or similar services does not physically pay VAT to the Russian budget, as does a local seller through a Russian marketplace.
Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Sazanov explained the logic of the future division: imported goods that enter Russia through marketplaces are supposed to be divided into two categories. Goods cheaper than 200 euros will be subject to VAT. Goods more expensive than this amount will receive an additional import duty on top of VAT, not instead of it.
The phased introduction of the rate is not a manifestation of the regulator's softness, but a technical necessity. A sharp shift to 22% from 2027 would create a shock to consumer prices for mass categories, which are now going through foreign platforms without additional tax burden. The three-year transition gives the market time to adapt logistics and pricing models gradually.
For Russian marketplaces, the new system evens out the competitive conditions — for years Wildberries and Ozon have indicated that they pay all taxes domestically, while foreign sites enjoyed a more lenient regime. The introduction of VAT for foreign sellers removes some of this bias.
For foreign sellers working in Russia directly or through partner schemes, a three—year horizon is enough time to restructure the business model: including VAT in the price, registering as a payer in the Russian tax system, or leaving direct sales in favor of local distributors.
The shortfall of 123 billion rubles is a weighty budget argument that makes postponing the bill unlikely. Companies planning to trade through foreign platforms in the Russian direction in 2027 and later should include VAT in the model now, without waiting for the final adoption of the law.
