The ruble exchange rate, which has fallen below 78.5 rubles per dollar in the interbank market, is increasingly raising questions among financial market participants. Analysts agree that the current values look disconnected from the fundamental economic picture and cannot be maintained for a long time.
Experts point out that the strengthening of the ruble is influenced by several factors at once: tight monetary policy, limited currency supply and the budgetary logic of recent months. However, this balance is considered unstable, especially in the context of an uncertain geopolitical agenda and fluctuations in commodity markets.
Anna Kokoreva, an expert on the stock market, notes that the current exchange rate looks overvalued relative to real economic conditions.:
"At the moment, the levels are quite high, and the exchange rate does not correspond to the current economic situation. ... For the next quarter, I think that the ruble, as far as the dollar and the euro are concerned, will be about 2 rubles higher than the current levels. ... The prospects are vague. The overall forecast for 12 months is positive, but we still have unclear geopolitics for the near future."
Thus, the short-term forecast assumes a moderate weakening of the national currency in the first quarter of 2026, despite the relative stability of macro indicators.
Igor Vagizov, CEO of Investland Investment Company, links the current situation with budgetary logic and the actions of the regulator.:
"The worse the budget situation, the stronger the ruble. Tight monetary policy, so it is very difficult for the currency to grow in these conditions. ... It seems to me that January will start in the range of 78-83."
At the same time, the oil market remains an important factor, which is showing weak dynamics in 2025. Vagizov emphasizes:
"Oil is indeed one of the weakest commodities on the global market this year. ... While the sideways trend is 58-63 for oil. But if [the conflict situation in Venezuela] escalates, there may be sharp movements in oil growth."
Even possible geopolitical risks in the oil market, according to a number of international analysts, are unlikely to lead to a sharp supply shortage in the first half of next year. This reduces the likelihood of long-term support for the ruble due to the raw material factor.
Collectively, experts expect that in 2026 the ruble will gradually return to more balanced values reflecting the fundamental parameters of the economy, while maintaining increased volatility and sensitivity to external factors.
