The Central Bank removes support for the ruble: currency sales will fall from 4.62 to 0.58 billion rubles per day
In the first half of 2026, the Central Bank sold currency on the market daily as part of operations under the budget rule — about 4.62 billion rubles per day. This created a predictable supply flow of dollars and yuan, which smoothed out exchange rate fluctuations. Since July 1, this flow has been reduced to 0.58 billion rubles per day — by eight times.
The decision was made as part of the adjustment of the budget rule to the new oil context: when Brent is below the base price of the budget rule ($60-70), the logic of reserve accumulation changes.
Why is this important right now?
Three factors of pressure on the ruble are working simultaneously. First, oil has fallen from $97 in April to $72-73 now, as export earnings are declining. Second: July–August is the season of growing import demand for foreign currency. Third, the Central Bank reduces the rate, which reduces the attractiveness of ruble assets.
Another factor is superimposed on this: the delay between the fall in oil prices and the arrival of oil revenue on the market is 1.5–2 months. In July, the revenue from May sales of $90-100 will come to the market, which also supports the ruble. In August and September – from the June sales of $72-73. This is the maximum pressure point.
What does it mean for the course
Analysts assess the Central Bank's decision unequivocally: it "will leave the national currency without support in the medium term." The first reaction of the market is already visible — the yuan reached 11.25 rubles during trading on June 30, and the dollar is moving towards 78 rubles.
Forecast range for the second half of the year: dollar 78-88 rubles, yuan 11.5–13.0 rubles. With a favorable outcome of the negotiations, the US–Iran (oil will stay above $70) will be closer to the lower limit. In case of a breakdown — to the top.
What should a business do right now
For importers from China with planned purchases for August–October: the window for buying foreign currency at a relatively favorable exchange rate is today and the next few days, while the market has not yet fully overestimated the withdrawal of Central Bank support.
For exporters: to keep foreign exchange earnings in foreign currency longer — with the weakening of the ruble, its ruble value will increase. Calculate whether the company is subject to the requirement for the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings in the current mode.
For all companies with foreign exchange contracts: review pricing taking into account the range of 78-88 rubles per dollar in the second half of the year. Contracts at current exchange rates carry exchange rate risk without reservations.
