The Strait of Hormuz is formally partially open — Iran allows some civilian vessels to pass through. But "partially open" in logistics means "completely unpredictable." Shipowners are not ready to risk expensive vessels for the sake of a single voyage, and this is directly reflected in the rates.
How the record freight is formed
The cost of sea transportation consists of several components. The base freight rate is currently under pressure for two reasons: part of the fleet has left for routes through the Cape of Good Hope, reducing the supply on the main lines; the remaining vessels require a premium for increased risk.
War Risk Premium, the insurance premium for passing through war zones, has increased many times since February 2026. For routes through Hormuz and the Arabian Sea, it is activated automatically and transferred to the cargo owner.
Bunker fuel with Brent above $111 is also becoming more expensive, which adds 15-25% to operating costs per flight compared to the level of $75-80 per barrel a year earlier.
Specific routes and numbers
Shanghai — Dubai (UAE) route: The freight rate for a 20-foot container has increased by about 2-2.5 times compared to January 2026. Through the Cape of Good Hope, the same route is more expensive by 30-40% and is extended by 10-15 days.
The route from India (Mumbai, Nhava Sheva) to the Persian Gulf: some shipowners have introduced a temporary refusal to enter the ports of the UAE without a special surcharge. This directly affects companies using Dubai as a transshipment hub for Russian imports.
Why is this important for Russian business
Most of the Russian imports from Asia go through direct lines or transit hubs, bypassing Hormuz. But there are sensitive categories.
First: goods purchased through Dubai intermediaries. If a supplier in the UAE receives cargo by sea from China or India, and then sends it to Russia, the increase in the cost of the first shoulder is already in the price.
The second is direct shipments from India to Russia by sea across the Indian Ocean. The Suez Canal is also not perfect now — the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have not stopped. Some of the ships leave for the Baltic via Africa.
Third: goods from the Middle East — from the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait. This is where freight has grown directly.
What to do right now
Request current rates from current carriers, broken down by component — especially by War Risk Premium and Bunker. Check whether the current freight cost is included in the price of the goods under current contracts. Consider fixing rates for 3-6 months if the carrier offers this option: during de-escalation, rates may decrease, but you will have to wait.
