The first half of 2026 was one of the best years for Maersk in recent years. The Hormuz crisis kept a geopolitical premium on tariffs for several months: carriers received increased rates with increased demand for bypass routes. With the gradual normalization of Hormuz in June, the situation began to change, but slowly.
The increase in the forecast indicates that the company's management does not expect a sharp rollback in rates. There will be a decrease, but it will be gradual. Maersk manages a significant share of the global container fleet, and its estimates are almost a direct indicator of where the market will be in a quarter.
For importers receiving goods via the UAE–Russia route: This means that rates will start to decline from the current peaks of $10,000-14,000 per container, but will not return to pre-crisis levels until the fourth quarter. A decrease of 20-30% by the end of summer is a realistic scenario, but a complete return to the levels of the beginning of the year is not.
For companies planning large shipments for the fall: putting cost rates in the range of $7,000— 9,000 per TEU on the route from the UAE is a more accurate calculation than focusing on the current peak or waiting for normalization.
