The yuan has long been the main settlement currency in Russian-Chinese trade: according to the Bank of Russia, 100% of officially registered settlements in this area are in rubles and yuan, without the dollar. This is not a trend — it has already been a fait accompli for several years.
The question is how effective these calculations are in terms of speed, cost, and availability of yuan liquidity. This is where the NBK's decisions of recent weeks have created a tangible practical effect.
What does the NBK do and why
The People's Bank of China has added three new REPO instruments for the international yuan market: for 7 days, 1 month and 3 months. The bottom line: foreign banks holding yuan-denominated securities can obtain yuan liquidity through REPO operations with the NBK. Prior to this, the instruments were limited in terms of urgency, which created inconveniences when managing yuan positions.
At the same time, the Chinese Ministry of Finance placed government bonds worth 15 billion yuan in Hong Kong. This is not about attracting financing — China does not need it. This is creating a liquid benchmark for the yuan yield curve outside of mainland China. The more developed the offshore yuan curve is, the more convenient it is for international companies to work with yuan instruments.
Why the yuan will continue to rise
BCS analysts state unequivocally: "We believe that the yuan exchange rate will continue to rise in the medium term." There are structural factors behind this forecast. The share of the yuan in global trade calculations is growing, primarily due to Russia, Iran, Central Asian countries, and increasingly ASEAN. Central banks are diversifying their reserves away from the dollar and the euro. The Hormuz crisis of 2026 accelerated this process and demonstrated the vulnerability of the dollar system.
What does this mean for Russian companies?
Reducing transaction costs through CIPS. CIPS member banks get cheaper access to yuan liquidity through new NBK instruments. This translates into lower fees when converting and transferring yuan.
The profitability of storing the yuan balance. With the forecast of yuan growth, it is more profitable to keep the operating balance in yuan between transactions than to convert it into rubles. With the current exchange rate of 11.25 and a forecast of 12.0 by autumn, this is 6.7% of income only due to exchange rate revaluation.
Reducing the cost of hedging. With a deeper yuan market, cheaper instruments for hedging exchange rate risk appear — forward contracts in yuan become more accessible to companies outside the top 10 in terms of trading volume.
