Breaking through the psychological mark of 80 rubles is not a one—time leap, but a point on a long-understood trajectory. The ruble has been weakening since the end of spring, and throughout June it only confirmed this rate: minus almost 11% against the dollar for the month — a movement that is difficult to attribute to the technical noise of trading.
Analyst Potavin expects a rate in the range of 85-87 rubles by the end of 2026. Ingo Bank's chief analyst, Peter Arronet, calls the benchmark even higher — 89 rubles. The consensus forecast of the market is in the range of 85-95 rubles, which means one thing: there is a wide range of opinions, but they are all above the current level.
The USD/RUB pair is trading within the 52-week range from 70 to 86.91 rubles — that is, even the current 80 does not exceed the limits of the values already seen. But context is more important than numbers. In recent months, the ruble has been supported by export earnings generated by spring oil prices. Back then, a barrel was noticeably more expensive than today's values, but now the quotes have almost returned to pre—crisis levels.
BloombergNEF predicts an oversupply of oil on the global market at least until the end of 2027. This is a structural factor that will put pressure on Russia's export earnings and, consequently, on the ruble over the horizon, not for months, but for years.
For companies working with foreign exchange contracts for imports, the difference between "the ruble is stabilizing" and "the ruble is structurally weakening" is the difference between a one—time price adjustment and a constant revision of the financial model. The second scenario looks more likely given the current oil dynamics and analysts' forecasts.
It is better to fix the exchange rate for autumn purchases now, before the currency goes into the range of 85+, which is already included in the forecasts of most banks.
