The ruble is strengthening at a time when oil is getting cheaper — and this violates the usual logic. Brent dropped from $107 in April to $88-93 in early June. According to the classic "oil" model, the ruble should have weakened. But it has strengthened.
There are several factors at work behind this.
Why is the ruble strong with cheap oil
The first factor is the peak of tax payments. Every end of the quarter and the end of the month, Russian exporters sell their foreign exchange earnings to pay taxes. The sale of dollars and yuan pushes the ruble up.
The second factor is accumulated export earnings. Oil fell in May–June, but the revenue from sales in April–May — when oil cost $ 100-107 — enters the market with a lag of several weeks. Exporters convert old revenue at new rates.
The third factor: expectations of a rate cut by the Central Bank on June 19. The market is planning a reduction to 13.25–14%, which makes ruble—denominated assets more attractive - capital remains in rubles.
What does the 71.79 exchange rate mean for importers
For companies purchasing goods in dollars or yuan: the current exchange rate is one of the best for buying foreign currency in 2026. The annual minimum for the dollar is about 70.5 rubles (it was in March 2026). The current level is close to it.
As a practical consequence, if you plan to make large purchases in yuan for the summer and autumn, it is more profitable to buy the currency now at the exchange rate of 10.8 yuan than to wait. With the resumption of the Hormuz escalation, oil may rise back to $100+, and then the ruble will strengthen even more. But this is an uncertainty.
With a reduction in the Central Bank's rate on June 19, the ruble may weaken slightly: the differential with the rates of foreign markets will decrease. Analysts' estimates are a weakening of 2-4% by the end of June with a decrease of 100+ bp.
Yuan exchange rate and direct trade with China
100% of payments in Russian-Chinese trade are made in rubles and yuan. At the exchange rate of 10.8 rubles per yuan, the cost of Chinese goods for a Russian buyer is one of the lowest in the last few quarters. This is a direct window for profitable purchases.
For companies with planned purchases in China for Q3 2026: fix the exchange rate now through a forward contract with a bank with direct access to CIPS. With oil rising and the yuan strengthening in July and August, you will save on the difference.
