Despite the rapid development of Russian e-commerce, the largest marketplaces are losing share amid the overall growth of the market. According to a Data Insight study, in the first half of 2025, the share of orders passing through Ozon, Wildberries and Yandex.Market decreased from 80% to 78%. This is happening against the background of a steady increase in the total volume of orders, which increased by 25% over the year.
Analysts explain this trend by a number of factors. First, customers are increasingly placing orders for one or two inexpensive items, avoiding large baskets. Secondly, products in the range of up to 500-700 rubles in marketplaces are 10-20% more expensive than in offline stores or from small online sellers.
The so—called "Gardener effect" is especially noticeable - when consumers massively go for small purchases and even fakes to less well-known sellers or alternative channels. Most often, this is a conscious choice: people save on the originality of the product for the sake of a better price.
Experts also point to the growth of the direct sales segment from manufacturers (D2C) and highly specialized online stores. These market participants take a significant share of orders from the e-commerce giants due to their flexible pricing policy and better knowledge of their audience.
An additional challenge is the rapid development of AI tools. New shopping agents created on the basis of large language models can influence the choice of consumers, redirecting them to more profitable offers outside of large sites. This may lead to a decrease in their market dominance in the future.
Thus, despite the growing demand for online shopping, marketplaces face new threats related to both changing consumer behavior and the technological development of competitors.
