The cost of road freight transportation in Russia in 2026 will continue to grow at an accelerated pace. According to market participants, the cost of transportation will increase by an average of 12%, and tariffs for customers — by 15-18%. The main pressure factors will be rising fuel prices, an increase in the tax burden, an increase in the cost of transport repairs and an increase in fees in the Platon system.
According to logistics companies, cost growth has already become a steady trend. One of the key factors is fuel, which has been rising in price faster than market expectations in recent months.
"One of the main reasons was the expected and already apparent increase in fuel prices. The trend has been continuing in recent months," said Timur Ponomarev, CEO of Ixcargo.
According to him, in 2025, gasoline prices increased by an average of 21%, and diesel fuel went up by 6.5%. This directly affects the costs of carriers, as fuel occupies a significant share in the cost structure.
Additional pressure is generated by the tax component. In 2026, the value added tax is expected to increase to 22%, which will automatically increase the financial burden on transport companies.
Andrei Myshkin, Deputy Director of the PEC, points out that tax increases have a multiplier effect on the transportation economy.
"An increase in VAT by two percentage points leads to an increase in the cost of freight transportation by at least three percent," he stressed.
Another factor will be the increased costs of fleet repairs and maintenance. According to experts, in 2026, these costs may increase by 20%, which is associated with an increase in the cost of spare parts, a shortage of components and an increase in the cost of maintenance work.
An increase in payments in the Platon system is also expected. The tariff is planned to be indexed to the inflation rate, which will further increase the costs of carriers on federal highways.
The combination of these factors creates serious pressure on the market. The industry does not rule out that some companies may not be able to withstand the rising costs.
"Next year, up to 7-10% of carriers may leave the market, and about 10% more will be at financial risk," industry participants note.
At the same time, experts emphasize that a sharp increase in effective demand from shippers is not expected. This limits the ability of carriers to fully transfer rising costs to tariffs, increasing competition and the risk of bankruptcy.
