The Trans-Caspian route has been in existence as a concept since 2013. For a long time, it remained "promising," but it was actually inferior to Russian transit in terms of speed and reliability due to several weaknesses: the ferry crossing over the Caspian Sea, gaps in the railway infrastructure on the Turkmen-Azerbaijani section.
Now these weaknesses are being purposefully eliminated. And not because Hormuz has opened or Russia has closed, but because China sees TMTM as a long—term route diversifier.
What is being built
The key missing element of the TMTM is a reliable railway connection between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, which allows cargo to be transported without being overloaded by ferry. According to the data trans.ru It is this construction that continues with Chinese financing. At the same time, ferry facilities are being expanded in the ports of Aktau (Kazakhstan) and Alat (Azerbaijan).
The infrastructure on the Azerbaijani-Turkish section is already sufficient — the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway is operating there.
Why is 20% a real figure?
The cost gap consists of several factors.
The Russian transit tariff is one of the highest in the region. This is a fee for using the Russian Railways infrastructure, which is formed based on the internal logic of pricing, rather than market competition.
TMTM does not require payment for Russian transit. With a comparable distance (for cargo from the central provinces of China to Western Europe, the distance is almost equal) this provides direct savings.
TMTM delivery time with a well-established infrastructure: 12-16 days. Northern route through Russia: 14-18 days. The difference is small, but combined with the price advantage, it's enough to make a choice.
Russia is in this system
The Trans—Caspian route is a competitor only for China–Europe cargo. It is irrelevant for China–Russia shipments: it makes no sense to transport goods to Russia through Azerbaijan and Turkey.
But this means that part of the transit revenue that Russia received from Chinese goods going to Europe will gradually be redistributed. Not abruptly, not dramatically, but systematically.
Russia's response to TMTM is to reduce the transit tariff or speed up processing. Neither one nor the other is happening systematically yet.
What does this mean for logistics companies?
For carriers operating on China–Europe routes: TMTM is becoming a working option for cost-sensitive customers. Monitor infrastructure development and form a proposal for this route in parallel with Russian transit.
For importers transporting goods from China to Russia: TMTM does not directly affect. Work through the northern routes — Zabaikalsk, Heihe, Suifenhe.
