At first glance, it's a paradox: the Hormuz is opening, the global economy is exhaling, and the ruble should weaken. The logic here is simple if you understand the mechanism.
The ruble has held strong over the past few months for three reasons: high oil prices generated large export earnings, business demand for foreign currency was subdued due to uncertainty, and the Central Bank's tight monetary policy (high interest rate) kept ruble assets attractive. All three factors are changing now.
Why $74 oil is a problem for the ruble
Brent at $74 means that Urals is trading in the range of $50-54 at a discount of more than $20. Russia's budget for 2026 is calculated based on the exchange rate of 92 rubles per dollar and the oil price is significantly higher than the current one. With oil at $50-54 and an exchange rate of 73 rubles, oil and gas revenues are below plan.
The response of the Ministry of Finance is that the increase in purchases of foreign currency under the budget rule will decrease or become negative (sale of reserves), but the overall pressure from a decrease in export earnings on the ruble remains.
Delay of 1.5–2 months: why not immediately
Oil dropped in mid-June. The export revenue that enters the domestic market is money from the sale of oil shipped 4-6 weeks ago. In May, Brent was $100+. This revenue still enters the market in July, supporting the ruble. When payments for oil at $74 begin to arrive (that is, in August–September), the pressure on the ruble will increase.
Gazprombank analyst Pavel Biryukov bluntly called this effect: the ruble will react to changes in oil prices with a lag of one and a half to two months.
The second factor: seasonal demand for currency
August–September is traditionally a period of growing demand for foreign currency in Russia: companies begin large purchase cycles for autumn and winter, tourists return from abroad to convert back into rubles, and seasonal imports of goods are growing. This factor works every year, and every year the ruble weakens slightly at the end of summer.
In 2026, this seasonal effect coincides with that of Hormuz, and they are mutually reinforcing.
What should importers do right now?
The window for currency purchase is June–early July. While the ruble remains at 73-74 rubles per dollar and 10.8 rubles per yuan, this is one of the best rates for purchasing for autumn supplies.
For planned purchases from China for August–October: buy yuan now. The difference between the current exchange rate (10.8) and the forecast autumn rate (11.5–12) is 6-11% of the additional costs for each yuan, which can be avoided.
For companies with long-term contracts: to review the price terms with suppliers, taking into account the forecast exchange rate of 85-90 rubles per dollar in the second half of the year. Contracts at the current exchange rate without exchange rate clauses carry significant risk.
