The beginning of 2026 in the container market was marked by a sharp weekly increase in spot rates in key Asian destinations. However, analysts agree that this jump does not reflect the recovery of cargo flows, but rather an attempt by linear carriers to adjust the price environment through tariff policy.
According to updated data from Drewry, the World Container Index (WCI) grew by 16% in the week to January 8, 2026, reaching $2,557 per 40-foot container. At the same time, the current values remain 36% lower than in the same period last year, which underlines the depth of the ongoing market correction.
The most noticeable movement in rates was recorded on the trans-Pacific routes. Container transportation from Shanghai to Los Angeles increased in price by 26% to $ 3,132, and on the Shanghai–New York route, the increase was 20% to $3,957. At the same time, as Drewry analysts emphasize, the available capacity on these routes continues to grow at a rate of 7-10% per month, while actual cargo volumes remain weak.
This imbalance between tonnage supply and real demand allows experts to talk about the tactical nature of growth. The rate increase was initiated by the introduction of new universal FAK tariffs, which, in conditions of excess capacity, looks more like an attempt to stabilize profitability than a reflection of fundamental market changes.
A similar pattern is observed on the Asia–Europe routes. The Shanghai–Genoa rate increased by 13% to $3,885, and Shanghai–Rotterdam increased by 10% to $2,840 per container. At the same time, the supply of shipping capacity is growing by 5-7% per month, which reduces the likelihood of a steady increase in prices.
The reverse directions look contrasting. Tariffs from Europe and the United States to Asia have remained virtually unchanged and remain at minimum levels — $504 on the Rotterdam – Shanghai route and $721 on the Los Angeles – Shanghai route. This highlights the structural asymmetry of the market and the lack of balanced commodity exchange.
The transatlantic segment showed more restrained dynamics. The Rotterdam–New York rate increased by only 2%, to $1,685, while the reverse direction remained virtually unchanged. This profile indicates a relative stabilization of supply and demand between Europe and North America.
In annual terms, the market remains under pressure. Rates on trans-Pacific routes decreased by 43-44% compared to January 2025. Asia–Europe lost from 25% to 35%. The exception was the New York-Rotterdam route, which recorded a 17% year–on-year increase due to local factors and the redistribution of cargo flows.
Thus, experts consider the current rate increase as a short-term price maneuver by carriers. Without restoring sustainable demand and reducing excess capacity, the market is unlikely to be able to consolidate positive dynamics, and volatility will remain a key characteristic of container transportation in early 2026.
