In the Russian currency dynamics, tax periods are a predictable seasonal rhythm. Every quarter, in the last days of the month, large exporters convert their accumulated foreign exchange earnings into rubles to pay VAT, income tax, and mineral extraction tax. This predictable flow of currency supply creates a temporary strengthening of the ruble, regardless of oil prices and other fundamental factors.
June 29, 2026 is exactly such a moment.
What the numbers say
The official exchange rate of the Central Bank on June 25: dollar — 74.77 rubles, yuan — 10.97 rubles. On June 26, the Central Bank has already set the dollar at 75.63 rubles, which is a one—way movement. During trading on June 25, the yuan reached 11.10 rubles in the daily session.
According to the analyst of the Bank of St. Petersburg: "The approach of the tax period and expectations of increased supply from exporters contributed to the stabilization of the situation in the foreign exchange market after the rapid growth of exchange rates at the beginning of the week. The Chinese currency exchange rate will trade in the range of 10.8–11.2 rubles on Thursday."
Why is the "window" short?
The tax period on June 29 is one day of maximum concentration of currency sales. On June 30 and beyond, this offer leaves the market. At the same time, fundamental factors of pressure on the ruble remain: Brent at $72.5, the absence of an extension of the American license for Russian oil, and the gradual easing of the Central Bank's monetary policy.
Analysts predicted a dollar exchange rate of 78.1 rubles by the end of 2026 back in early June, when oil was more expensive. With Brent at $72, this forecast looks rather optimistic — the real exchange rate may be closer to 82-85 rubles by autumn.
Why is June 29 the last convenient window?
The next tax period is the end of July. By that time, oil prices will have time to put pressure on the ruble for several more weeks, and the yuan is likely to cost 11.3–11.7 rubles, not 10.8–11.0.
For planned purchases in China for August–October: the difference between the purchase of the yuan on June 29 at 10.9 and the purchase at the end of July at 11.5 is 5.5% overpayment. For parties of 500,000 yuan — 275,000 rubles of additional expenses for the course alone.
What to do right now
Importers with planned purchases from China for August–October: calculate the required amount of yuan and make a purchase on June 28-29. Checking with the servicing bank for the possibility of leaving yuan in a foreign currency account without immediate conversion into rubles is a standard service if you have a foreign currency account.
