The ruble continued to show steady strengthening and at the end of November, for the first time in more than two years, the dollar dropped below 77 rubles. On the over-the-counter market, quotes reached 77.04 rubles per dollar, while the official exchange rate set by the Bank of Russia settled near 77.96 rubles. The last time such levels were observed was in the summer of 2023, which makes the current dynamics one of the most noticeable in recent years.
Experts explain what is happening by a combination of several factors. The key driver of the strengthening was the geopolitical agenda: positive expectations regarding the negotiation process and a decrease in the overall level of tension reduced the demand for defensive currencies. The Russian foreign exchange market is traditionally sensitive to favorable news of this nature, which enhances the reaction of the ruble.
The dynamics were also influenced by the structure of foreign trade. In November, exporters increased their net sales of foreign exchange earnings, despite the absence of a mandatory standard for its repatriation. A 15% decrease in foreign exchange earnings in early November led to companies actively selling foreign currency to cover domestic expenses, which supported the ruble. At the same time, importers reduced the demand for foreign currencies, as purchases for the New Year's season were made in advance.
Internal financial conditions also played a role. The current level of the key rate remains high, which makes ruble-denominated instruments attractive and limits speculative pressure on the exchange rate. Analysts assume that even with a potential rate adjustment at the December meeting of the Central Bank, the effect of maintaining the ruble will remain.
At the same time, experts warn that the further dynamics of the ruble will depend on a combination of factors — external risks, the behavior of exporters, the dynamics of commodity prices and the activity of the population. Demand for the currency traditionally increases in December, which may slow down the current strengthening.
