The ruble is strengthening, oil is stabilizing, the stock exchange is looking for support: what to expect in the new week
The week begins in the currency and commodity markets, which may become one of the most significant for the dynamics of the ruble, oil prices and the Russian stock market. Investors continue to monitor geopolitical signals, expectations of global regulators and internal factors determining the balance of supply and demand of foreign currency.
The Russian currency came to December in a strengthened state, which was facilitated by the low demand of importers for foreign currency, a reduction in external purchases before the holiday season and the gradual adaptation of exporters to sanctions restrictions. Additional support is provided by sales of yuan in the framework of budget operations, the volume of which has been increased to 14.5 billion rubles per day. Against this background, the ruble receives a significant cushion of stability, which allows it to trade in the range of 74-79 rubles per dollar and 86-92 rubles per euro.
At the same time, the influence of raw material factors is growing. The oil market remains in the neutral zone: quotes fluctuate around the range of 61-64 dollars per Brent, and market participants are assessing the consequences of Western sanctions against Russian oil companies. Despite the pressure, Russian exports are gradually rebuilding, and the Urals discount to Brent has decreased to 15-16%, indicating a partial recovery in demand. At the same time, the strong geopolitical background will continue to determine short-term oil price movements.
The Russian stock market remains highly dependent on information flows. Investors are monitoring the development of negotiations between Moscow and Western countries, as well as the results of the president's visit to India, which added optimism to the market. However, the strengthening of the ruble and the cautious dynamics of oil prices limit the growth potential of the Moscow Exchange index. In the coming days, market participants are expecting new data on inflation and are preparing for a meeting of the Bank of Russia, the results of which may adjust expectations for the rate.
For global markets, the key event will be the US Federal Reserve meeting, where a 25 basis point rate cut is expected. The decision of the American regulator can affect capital inflows to emerging markets and change the balance of power in the currency markets.
The coming week promises to be eventful, and the market is particularly sensitive to news signals. The final vector of movement of the ruble, oil, and stock index will be determined by a combination of external factors and internal conditions, including budget operations, export activity, and the course of international negotiations.
